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Lesson for GOP: Don't P.O. Women

A new Washington Post-ABC News poll shows that female voters are moving in large numbers into the Democrats' corner, sending a strong warning to President Trump and Republicans that they had better stop pissing off women if they hope to avoid being swamped in Congressional elections this fall.

By 51 percent to 39 percent, more registered voters say they would support the Democratic candidate in their congressional district over the Republican. Democrats’ 12-point advantage on this question is the largest in Post-ABC polling since 2006, although it is slightly larger than other polls this month, reported The Washington Post.

The poll says Democrats hold a 57 percent to 31 percent advantage among female voters, double the size of Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton’s margin in the 2016 election. Nonwhite women favor Democrats by a 53-point margin, somewhat smaller than Clinton’s 63-point advantage over Trump in 2016. This was evident in the recent Alabama special election, where women of color voted heavily for Democrat Doug Jones as he defeated Republican Ray Moore, more than accounting for his margin of victory.

The Post-ABC News poll shows that white women have moved sharply towards the Democrats, favoring them over Republicans by 12 points after supporting Trump by nine points in 2016 and Republican candidates by 14 points in the 2014 midterm election. That was not the case in Alabama, where a majority of white female voters backed Moore.

The Post's article points out that partisan loyalty is strong, with Republican and Democratic candidates winning support from at least 9 in 10 of their fellow partisans. However, self-identified political independents favor Democrats by a 16-point margin, 50 percent to 34 percent. The swing group has been decisive in three consecutive midterm election waves, backing Republicans by 19 points in 2010 and 12 points in 2014, but supporting Democrats by 18 points in 2006 when they retook control of the House.

The Post also noted that antipathy for Trump is concentrated among both women and independents as 6 in 10 female registered voters “strongly disapprove” of Trump’s job performance compared with just over 4 in 10 men. About half of independents also hold intensely negative views of Trump, compared with about one-fifth who “strongly approve” of his efforts.

The massive Women's March turnouts this past weekend demonstrated that Trump and Republicans have succeeded, if anything, in increasing the concern of large numbers of women regarding key issues. Moreover, the growing #MeToo movement no doubt adds to that momentum.

There are nine months until those elections take place, and much can happen. But for Republicans, it appears that women voters are sending a clear message to Republicans: Shape up or pay the price on November 6.

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