Now that the midterms are over, it’s time to look ahead to the next presidential election. There are several scenarios that could occur, making it possible for Democrats to once again remain in the Oval Office. Even as the economy sputters along, the midterm results make this prospect even more likely.
So, what are the possible matchups in 2024? While circumstances are certain to change between now and then, there are several options for both sides that could influence the outcome one way or another.
Trump vs. Biden
At this point, a rematch of the 2020 election seems to be the most probable come 2024. Depending on the economy, the most likely issues will be a rehash of the 2020 race. For Trump it boils down to multiple two-word phrases that are easy for him to recall: Rigged system, stolen election and, his go-to for any accusation hurled his way, Witch Hunt.
Being the incumbent, Biden will have the advantage of what should be an unchallenged primary, which means he won’t have to spend political capital defending his record against members of his own party. Again, his issues will be the economy and, of course, the Southern border. While Republicans in the House will certainly stymie any possible progress for the next two years, Biden can still point to the Infrastructure Law, COVID Relief Package and the Inflation Reduction Act as successes in his first two years.
The midterms have shown that Trump’s hold on the Republican Party is weakening. While he still has his base, it’s shrinking by the day with each outrageous action he commits.The failure of MAGA candidates in the midterms, particularly in the Georgia run-off election, is obvious proof of this.
Yet fellow Republican lawmakers still refuse to disavow him. Instead, they walk a fine line by condemning his acts, such as dinner with a White supremacist and calls to tear up the Constitution, but they won’t blame Trump himself.
This could prove to be a fatal error should Trump, as appears likely, be the Republican nominee in 2024.
Meanwhile, there is the issue of age. Joe Biden just turned 80. There has never been a president as old. Even before the midterms there were cries to have his cognitive abilities tested. They will only get louder should he, as anticipated, run for a second term.
Advantage: Biden
Donald Trump has far too much baggage to get the support he once had during his 2016 run. Despite Republicans in Congress attempting to distract the public with partisan investigations aimed at discrediting those investigating Trump, the multiple inquiries, and possible indictments, make Trump too toxic for many to back.
While Trump will likely still have the support of Republican lawmakers, who he will surely blackmail into giving their support by threatening to break off from the party and launch a third party run, the midterms have demonstrated that some voters would likely remain home rather than support him for another chaotic term.
As for Biden, despite being a self-described human gaffe machine, he will certainly have universal backing of Democratic lawmakers. If the Supreme Court continues its trend of reversing certain rights, it will only embolden his supporters.
While the economy and border security are definitely negatives at the moment, Trump seems insistent upon rehashing the 2020 election while complaining, without evidence, of a rigged system. He will undoubtedly point to the 2022 midterms as “proof” of this.
Trump vs. Biden vs. DeSantis
This is the nightmare scenario for Republicans. Should they select someone other than Trump, he would most assuredly make good on his threat to run as a third party candidate. That would splinter the party into MAGA vs. traditional Republicans. This fracture would also spill into the halls of Congress and even state legislatures as divided loyalties pit them against each other in an internal Civil War that would doom either side to failure.
Advantage: Biden
Republicans have called the multiple investigations into the Trump administration and the ensuing scandals that followed as partisan “witch hunts”.
Their efforts to smear President Biden, in their desire to enact political revenge, will almost definitely backfire. There will certainly be anger and outrage on both sides with Republicans refusing to acknowledge the facts uncovered by Merrick Garland’s Justice Department, and Democrats pushing back against the transparent efforts by hyper-partisan MAGA members of Congress to find any evidence of wrongdoing in the Biden administration.
It’s highly unlikely Republicans will uncover anything damaging, but they will use the mere appearance of impropriety as “evidence”. It still won’t be to damage the split caused by competing candidates within its own party.
A possible solution would be if DeSantis offered to be Trump’s running mate, but this is highly unlikely given their massive egos.
Trump vs. Harris
Should Joe Biden decline to run a second term, his Vice President , Kamala Harris, seems to be his likely successor. Her experience in Congress was relatively free from controversy and she has smoothly transitioned into her historic role as Vice President. In order to dig up any dirt, the Trump machine will likely go back as far as her time as a prosecutor, where she’s been labeled “a Progressive prosecutor” while alternately being “tough on crime”.
Trump, never one to focus on the issues, will undoubtedly revert to the childish name-calling that characterizes his campaigns. Instead of attacking her prosecutorial record, he will no doubt appeal to his base by ridiculing her gender and race, much to the delight of his White supremacist, misogynist supporters. He will use the same birther issue he employed against President Obama, since this was the controversy that propelled him into the public eye. He will also employ the same tactics he used to discredit his 2016 opponent, Hillary Clinton, by unearthing some false controversy.
Even though she has a Jewish husband, Trump will attempt to paint Harris as an antisemite while once again boasting that he has done more for Israel than any of his predecessors, while accusing American Jews of not being loyal enough. It’s a move sure to backfire. Instead of falling in line because they were chastised, it’s likely this segment of the population will sour on his message.
Advantage: Harris
Trump continues to delude himself about his popularity. With every action he is losing members of his base daily. If the recent midterms are any indication, it’s likely that many of those he could once count on will either stay home on Election Day or simply refuse to cast a vote in the presidential election.
Meanwhile, Harris can point to the successes of the Biden administration while deflecting the transparent attempts at smearing her reputation. She also has a slew of ammo to attack Trump’s fitness for office including his dual impeachments, the January 6th insurrection, associations with White Supremacists and his call to ignore the Constitution.
Even his calling the elections rigged will likely blow up in Trump’s face, as they did in the 2021 Georgia runoff. Instead, voters will remain home rather than cast their ballots, giving him yet another loss. The result would be an election of historic proportions.
The Unknown
If there is one constant in politics it’s that there is no way to predict what will happen next. Front runners have become also rans as events have elevated previously unknown candidates like Jimmy Carter and Bill Clinton while past scandals have torpedoed the once promising futures of others.
Both sides have supported less-than-viable candidates. Republicans had Barry Goldwater, and, to a lesser extent, John McCain while Democrats ran George McGovern, Michael Dukakis, John Kerry and Walter Mondale. Each was undone by a fickle electorate or a more popular opponent.
It’s entirely possible that Joe Biden will bow to the will of those in his party who are urging him not to run due to his age. It’s more than equally likely that Trump will bow out as legal issues, and even prosecution, remove him from the race.
Given those possibilities, it not improbable to suggest that a previously unheard of candidate is thrust into the political spotlight. Despite currently showing positive poll numbers, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis might seem too toxic for the general public. Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg enjoys a certain popularity, but that may evaporate when given a national stage.
Advantage: No One
The 2024 elections are a long way off. Yet, they will somehow be upon us sooner than we think. Circumstances and unforeseen events will no doubt have an impact on who will, and who won’t, be in the running for the highest office in the land.