It shouldn’t be a surprise that Vladimir Putin is threatening to interfere in the 2024 presidential election, the same as he did in 2016. And while there are multiple signs he wants to see Donald Trump in the White House once again, there are also valid reasons he would support Joe Biden’s re-election bid as a means to further destabilize what has become a fragile democracy in America.
Trump and Putin
Following the infamous summit in Helsinki, Putin admitted he wanted Donald Trump to win the 2016 election. While he stopped short of admitting to meddling in the race, he certainly seemed pleased with the results, especially since Trump made it his mission to disrupt the NATO alliance, and promote a pro-Russian agenda by suggesting Russia be re-admitted to the G-7 alliance following its expulsion after invading Crimea.
If past is prologue, Putin will once again support Trump and his pro-Russian policies. Despite his constant comments that “No one was tougher on Russia", Trump gave Putin an easy ride while attempting to blackmail Ukraine. This was what ultimately led to Trump’s first impeachment. After all, following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Trump referred to the move as genius.
Yeah, Trump was so tough on Russia.
As further evidence that Putin is planning to interfere in 2024 to benefit Trump, there have even been suggestions as to who would replace Mike Pence on the ticket. Pence’s refusal to support overturning the 2020 election results has made him persona non grata, so should Trump choose to run again, there would need to be a decision on who Trump would choose as his running mate.
Russian television has been floating former Hawaii representative Tulsi Gabbard, a Democrat, as a possible choice. This is the same Tulsi Gabbard who ran as a Democrat in the 2020 presidential primaries and who Hillary Clinton accused of being “a Russian asset”. Gabbard has pushed the unfounded claim that Ukraine is currently housing US bio labs, thereby giving Russia justification for its invasion.
Trump’s attempt to destroy NATO is certainly something that would play into Russia’s hands in their present conflict with Ukraine. Having Trump in power once again would definitely benefit Putin’s goal of occupying the once Soviet Union dominated nation.
So, there are many reasons Putin would once again seek to interfere in another presidential election to give Donald Trump a leg up.
Why Putin Would Support Joe Biden
With President Biden’s opposition and his ability to unite NATO despite Donald Trump’s attempts at sabotaging the organization, why on earth would Vladimir Putin even consider supporting Joe Biden?
Consider how divided America has become since Trump lost. If Trump were to lose again, it would certainly incite his followers to violence similar to, if not far worse than, January 6th. The result would be a completely divided America, with one side recognizing Biden as the president and the other following Donald Trump, who would undoubtedly promote a more lethal uprising this time.
The ensuing chaos would lead to divided loyalties. Congress would cease to function. The military would follow whoever they believed was the victor and the United States would be forced to withdraw its support of Ukraine as it dealt with its own internal strife. America would be plunged into its second Civil War.
Russia has its own history of internal infighting. It was the cause of Russia withdrawing from the First World War as the Bolshevik Revolution took hold and Communists sought to control the Russian government. Russia’s vacating the war opened the door to a German victory. It was only when the United States became involved that Germany’s fate was sealed.
This means it would not be entirely out of the realm of possibility that Russia would throw its support behind Joe Biden, albeit secretly, as a means of further upending democracy.
Is QAnon Russian?
The question of who is behind QAnon is one of the most puzzling mysteries of these trying times. Allegedly, he is a high-ranking government official who is privy to the most secretive aspects of what has been called the “Deep State”. The implication is that “Q” is the highest ranking of top secret access to government’s most closely held operations, so the so-called “inside man” is able to view the details of the most delicate covert missions being performed by multiple intelligence agencies.
The information is released through cryptic messages known as “Q drops”. These messages are never a straightforward statement, but rather a series of seemingly random phrases that leaves their meaning to be interpreted by those who follow these rants. So, depending on what someone surmises the message to be, it could either be a call to immediate action or a promise of more to come.
If it all sounds confusing, that’s because it is. There are so many outlandish conspiracy theories spawned from these “Q drops” that it staggers the imagination. From Pizzagate to the return of John F. Kennedy, the wild interpretations of these cryptic messages has resulted in acts of violence -- including the January 6th insurrection.
Central to any QAnon conspiracies is the baseless accusation that liberals are cannibalistic pedophiles who hold secret meetings where children are tortured and abused, then sacrificed in Satanic rituals. This is a crazy as it is unoriginal. It harkens back to the centuries-old antisemitic Blood Libel claims so-called Christians used to justify persecution of the Jews. It was the primary reason so few spoke up to stop the Holocaust.
These horrific claims have even made their way to the halls of Congress. During the recent Supreme Court confirmation hearings of Kentanji Brown Jackson, she was painted as being soft on pedophiles by the QAnon-backed members of the committee. Despite being confirmed, many on the right used this as justification for opposing her.
The right is already making this an issue for the upcoming midterm elections, labeling those who oppose anti-LBTGQ legislation as pro-pedophile and attacking teachers as groomers who seek to indoctrinate children to be gay.
But what if it’s all a ruse? Certainly the accusations that liberals are Satan worshiping pedophiles and teachers are grooming children is as ridiculous as it is heinous. Yet, what if this is all a Russian-driven attack to further divide the nation?
It’s difficult to remain completely anonymous in today’s digital era. Even the White House whistleblower who wrote under the nom de plume of Anonymous was eventually discovered. So, how is someone who has so many followers able to keep their identity secret for this long?
It may help to have the intelligence agencies of a secretive society at your disposal. Given the effectiveness of the Russian propaganda network and its ability to distort the facts regarding the invasion of Ukraine, it is a mere walk in the park.
Combine that with a lax social media and strict adherence to the First Amendment, Russia can easily manipulate not only its own population, but also gullible Americans. During the 2016 presidential election, Russia completely weaponized social media to Donald Trump’s advantage.
So, it’s not out of the realm of possibility that Russia created QAnon as an agent of chaos to destroy democracy. They may not have realized how effective he could become. But they may soon discover that fact as the midterms approach and the next presidential election is on the horizon.
Indeed, QAnon promises to be the same damaging influence that Wikileaks was in 2016. Through carefully timed Q drops and a growing following, they can create chaos and damage a campaign. It’s exactly what you’ve come to expect from a Russian smear operation.
Possible Outcomes
Given there will be at least two candidates in the 2024 presidential election, and given that the likely combatants will be a do-over of the 2020 election, there are two ways Putin can interfere. Depending on the tact he takes, the outcome could have a profound effect on democracy in America.
One possibility is that Putin interferes to support Donald Trump. In doing so, he would likely see America fade from its international obligations like NATO and the Paris Climate Accords. Sanctions over Russia’s invasion of Ukraine would disappear as Trump focuses on his revenge tour to punish those who opposed him while again cozying up to dictators and autocrats.
Democracy as we know it would effectively be destroyed.
A second scenario has Putin quietly supporting Joe Biden’s re-election. Why would he do this? After viewing the violence on January 6th and the continued cry of a stolen election, Putin could seize the opportunity to destroy democracy from within. A second insurrection and even more violence would follow. Republicans would want to enforce even stricter voting restrictions, making the future of democracy even bleaker.
A major flaw in Republicans’ stolen election claims is the lack of evidence. While they constantly asserted they had “tons of proof”, none has been produced despite seemingly endless recounts, audits and demands for a do-over. Recently released text messages between Republican members of Congress and then Chief of Staff Mark Meadows revealed frustration by the congressmen that no evidence supporting a stolen election was forthcoming. They asserted that continuing to support this claim would only "end badly for the President".
Putin would likely learn from this oversight. Using QAnon, he could possibly introduce “evidence”, either real or, more likely, manufactured, that President Biden attempted to use his office to protect his son, Hunter, from further legal matters.
Of course, this all predicates on a number of factors. First, and most likely, both Trump and Biden would be running, and be their party’s choice. Second, and becoming less likely by the day, Vladimir Putin would still be in power in 2024. Russian atrocities in Ukraine could finally be accepted as fact, resulting in Putin being forced out of power and at the mercy of the World Court.
There are many ways there could be meddling in the 2024 election. That’s why it’s so important that we remain vigilant.