With support for the war in Ukraine waning among Republicans, Russia may have seized upon the opportunity to divert American military assistance from the Russian conflict to Israel.
By enabling Hamas, it’s entirely possible that arms meant to aid Ukraine could be diverted to the Middle East, which would be a huge blow to the Ukrainian effort to avoid becoming a Russian satellite nation once again.
And the Russians have some unlikely allies in the Republican Party.
As the war in Ukraine drags on, American support, particularly among Republicans, is waning. With the Speakership of the House in limbo, the MAGA faction of the party, along with their preferred candidate, Donald Trump, is demanding that further aid to Ukraine be diverted to securing the Southern border. Now there is the additional wrinkle of a potential war in Israel, which could further sap support for the Ukrainian war effort.
Despite being a party in disarray in the House, Republicans are unified in their support of Israel. Yet the party is rife with White Supremacists who bring their anti-Semitic hatred along with them. So, while supporting a Jewish homeland, they limit their support to keeping Jews “over there”, similar to the Back to Africa movement that was championed as a way to address the growing influence of Black Americans in the early 20th century.
To distract from their internal conflicts, Republicans are attempting to make political hay from the fact that President Biden unfroze $6 billion in Iranian assets to gain the freedom of several Americans being held in Iranian prisons. They are trying to make a connection between Iran’s desire to destroy Israel and the recently available flow of cash. Yet they ignore that Iran has been supplying Russia with drones that have been crucial to Russia’s efforts in Ukraine.
The political chessboard of international diplomacy is a twisted maze of gamesmanship that requires an incredible amount of dependence on alliances. And there have already been cracks in the effort to support Ukraine in its war with Russia. It wouldn't take much to widen these cracks. An unprecedented attack on Israel may be enough to splinter the alliance in support of Ukraine as arms are diverted to battle Hamas. So, any diversion of arms would certainly benefit Russia.
Experts have cited a lack of intelligence in the ability of Hamas to launch their sneak attacks on Israel. Could Hamas have been receiving Russian intelligence assistance in order to stage their infiltration into Israeli territory?
The jury is still out on this, but the benefits to Russia are obvious. By assisting Hamas, Russia would be weakening support for Ukraine as demand for more arms to protect Israeli interests increases. Indeed, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is already foreseeing a long war with Hamas, which could potentially doom Ukraine.
Russia can further strengthen its hand by using the Israeli conflict to bolster Donald Trump’s efforts to retake the White House. Republicans already are positioning themselves as Champions of Israel, so a prolonged war would certainly be used as political fodder in the upcoming presidential election. Trump and his MAGA allies already have voiced their opposition to continued support for the Ukrainian war effort, so the benefits are obvious.
The world of international diplomacy is extremely complex. Trying to connect the dots between diplomatic efforts can be as confusing as attempting to untie a Gordian knot. Yet it doesn’t take much untangling to see the obvious advantages Russia would gain by a diversion of arms from Ukraine to Israel.
So, is Russia behind Hamas attacks? it’s entirely possible that Russia could be behind Hamas’s incursion into Israel.